USDJPY Chart — Dollar Yen Rate — TradingView

2.5 years and 145 backtested trades later

I have a habit of backtesting every strategy I find as long as it makes sense. I find it fun, and even if the strategy ends up being underperforming, it gives me a good excuse to gain valuable chart experience that would normally take years to gather. After I backtest something, I compare it to my current methodology, and usually conclude that mine is better either because it has a better performance or the new method requires too much time to manage (Spoiler: until now, I like this better)
During the last two days, I have worked on backtesting ParallaxFx strategy, as it seemed promising and it seemed to fit my personality (a lazy fuck who will happily halve his yearly return if it means he can spend 10% less time in front of the screens). My backtesting is preliminary, and I didn't delve very deep in the data gathering. I usually track all sort of stuff, but for this first pass, I sticked to the main indicators of performance over a restricted sample size of markets.
Before I share my results with you, I always feel the need to make a preface that I know most people will ignore.
I am not going to go into the strategy in this thread. If you haven't read the series of threads by the guy who shared it, go here.
As suggested by my mentioned personality type, I went with the passive management options of ParallaxFx's strategy. After a valid setup forms, I place two orders of half my risk. I add or remove 1 pip from each level to account for spread.
I tested this strategy over the seven major currency pairs: AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF. The time period started on January 1th 2018 and ended on July 1th 2020, so a 2.5 years backtest. I tested over the D1 timeframe, and I plan on testing other timeframes.
My "protocol" for backtesting is that, if I like what I see during this phase, I will move to the second phase where I'll backtest over 5 years and 28 currency pairs.
Units of measure
I used R multiples to track my performance. If you don't know what they are, I'm too sleepy to explain right now. This article explains what they are. The gist is that the results you'll see do not take into consideration compounding and they normalize volatility (something pips don't do, and why pips are in my opinion a terrible unit of measure for performance) as well as percentage risk (you can attach variable risk profiles on your R values to optimize position sizing in order to maximize returns and minimize drawdowns, but I won't get into that).
I am not going to link the spreadsheet directly, because it is in my GDrive folder and that would allow you to see my personal information. I will attach screenshots of both the results and the list of trades. In the latter, I have included the day of entry for each trade, so if you're up to the task, you can cross-reference all the trades I have placed to make sure I am not making things up.
Overall results: R Curve and Segmented performance.
List of trades: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Something to note: I treated every half position as an individual trade for the sake of simplicity. It should not mess with the results, but it simply means you will see huge streaks of wins and losses. This does not matter because I'm half risk in each of them, so a winstreak of 6 trades is just a winstreak of 3 trades.
For reference:
Nice. I'll keep testing. As of now it is vastly better than my current strategy.
submitted by Vanguer to Forex [link] [comments]

What Price Does is Real, and Everything Else is Only a Thought.

What Price Does is Real, and Everything Else is Only a Thought.
At the start of the week I made posts saying I thought USDJPY was heading to 110 - 111 this week. I later revised that.
At the start of today I said I thought USDJPY would be up, with a low of 105.40 (it'd been at 105.30 already, actually. I was buying 105.40). This had a 7 pip stop and I'd posted another pending order to buy 105.15. This filled, but later in the day I posted I was exiting all USDJPY. Furthermore, I went short.

I have some questions about this (and some accusations), and I think what it boils down to really is, "What's with the random flip flopping?" I'd be happy to explain.

First we'll chart up the trade themselves. Let's map out clearly the events and outcomes we're talking about here. Here I'll only use the actionable entries and exits. By which I mean, the times I specifically said XXX price enter, XXX price stop. These are the only times I've been engaging the market. The rest has been discussing plans, not executing them.

Signals I gave;

USDJPY buy 104.60. Stop 104.20
USDJPY buy take profit 106.06
USDJPY buy 105.75 stop 104.20
USDJPY buy updates, tight stop entry 105.75 - 105.80. Stop 105.60
USDJPY take profit 106.50
USDJPY sell 106.50. Stop 106.80
USDJPY take profit 105.35
USDJPY buy 105.35. Stop 105.27
USDJPY stop hits. 8 pips loss.
USDJPY sell 105.35. Stop 105.48
USDJPY take profit 105.20

(There was one more trade planned and possibly executed on by some people. I've not included it since there was no exits given. Just a price action condition to enter. I'll touch on that trade too a little)

I can't be bothered getting all the stuff together to show this, but it is in my weeks posting history. Those of you who followed closely what I was posting this week and had these trade plan discussion with me where we defined the actual entry and exits, please confirm in the comments this is at least reasonable accurate.
White, green winning buys.
Yellow winning sell.
Red Losing buy.
(The final scalp I've not added because it's too small. It was from about the last high to last low, though. You can check)

I think these are good trades. Throughout my posts talking about these trade setups I think I've presented solid reasoning, and good information on risk awareness and control. I think that, but we all have perspectives. Here's an exchange with someone with another perspective thinking my way of trading (I don't think they read 1/4 of my posts to know what I am doing) is harmful to explain. Only to those who do not consume the full explanation., would be my thought.

The entries that are being criticised here are the white buy, the green buy and the yellow sell. When we look at these on a chart, it is clear this was not teaching people to reverse because price was not going there way. It was teaching them to take profits at good places, and enter into new trades with good probabilities. There was only one time the market moved against the direction I'd given in trading signals, it was the buy today. It was from 135.27, and it hit a 8 pip stop.

After the stop hit, price retested the entry level and then continued to head lower into the close of the week (we sold, profiting from this and covering the loss on the buy). Everyone has their own ideas about how things can and can not be done, but the raw facts here are none of my signals exposed to large risks, and the trades entered and exited at excellent prices. Whether or not this is gambling depends on how often I can do it. I done exactly the same trade pattern last week.

Before I executed the trade plan last week, I explained every aspect of it. I even drew the chart. Literally. I covered all my forecasts in the close of this post.. Through this week, I've explained the exact same thing step by step, and again entered precisely at the start and end of swings. If you think this is gamblers luck, I don't fancy your odds. They odds will get longer. I'll keep posting forecasts, execution and reports. I may win or lose, can never know ... but I know the long term trend.

After getting stopped out, I reversed. This was not a great trade because it was late in the week, but is part of an established trading pattern I use. I don't know why you guys stop loss, but I do it because the market has proved me wrong. Usually I have reasons I'd be wrong and why they'd change my view on the market. Here was the specs I wanted to see to keep this trade active.

When the London low broke, the entire strategy this trade was based upon failed. Signals from it became invalid. The stop loss this strategy used is placed purposefully. When it hits, price very often will retest the entry but never go back into profit before gathering a far larger loss than the 8 pips would be. So this is the kill point, and also the point at which the market shows counter momentum.

When it does this, I then deploy a contingency strategy where I look for small chart trend and corrective patterns to reverse on the position. I've practised this a lot, and tested many variant of stops, re-entries and reversal. What I do is highly efficient at getting out of the market and covering the loss in the following trading pattern.

All of the trades I posted this week won (even the losing one was dealt with in a winning way). Even though my overall forecast was incorrect, I used strategies and designed trading patterns to adapt my thoughts to profit from what the market was actually doing. Where price really goes is where we really make money. Not in all the reasons we think things about what price can do. I spend a lot of time on what I do. I've been posting here for a month now, and objective review of my entries and exits shows they have done well.

Please .... please, can people stop telling me in absolute terms what "can't be done". You have to start to do one of two things;

1 - Relate the real analysis and entries and exits of what I do to your opinion of what I do.
2 - Start to use the words, "I think ..." if you're making speculations that do not relate to current facts.
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

USDJPY - 2 and a half hours left.

I know this seems horribly arbitrary (I've tested other things, this worked best), but we close USDJPY 30 mins before the swaps credit (10 pm GMT).
We usually see the market squeeze sellers hard in the next couple hours. 106.66 is current price. We're at a high. This can break in a big move up, and this is where sellers get stopped out and reverse long. Big mistake. We should do exactly the opposite.

We bank 30 mins before the swap, and then usually reverse 45 mins after for the dip into London.

I've gave a fuller walk through of this sort of move in this post.

EDIT: This gave a close of 16 pips from the high of the day. I think our buy was about 10 pips from the low of the day.
submitted by whatthefx to u/whatthefx [link] [comments]

50% - 100% a Year Trading One Day a Week: Week 2 - Post Trade Analysis Plan.

50% - 100% a Year Trading One Day a Week: Week 2 - Post Trade Analysis Plan.
Part 1 Part 2 Part 3

This started out looking like it was going to be a successful setup for at the very least trade #1 today from the 61.8 on London open. There was a confluence of time, level and price action. It went up a bit, but failed to develop into an all day rally.

Two trades areas where posted, and over these two trade areas a net result of a slight profit was obtained.
Thing initially looked very promising. I took early positions near the low, and then once a move up started to establish I added more positions. Net risk on this position was kept low, never exceeding 0.4% and having the potential to gain 1.5% upwards. Price reversed back against these trades, and stopped them out for very small stop losses, and a 0.3% loss.
From that area price fell into the first established potential support level. This level is good for a trend continuation in perhaps early EU session spike outs, but so late in the day it's not likely a big move will develop (we were deep into the allowed final 4-6 hours).
When price gets back to where the first support is, it's very likely this becomes resistance. The trade is closed at the re-test of there, covering the loss of the first trade.
The price action we seen at this level was very consistent with what we'd be looking for at support (stall on support, and spike under). You can see on this chart, though, that once the trade we are taking has failed it also is showing signs of the up-trend failing. Lows are getting lowers, and highs are getting lower. The market only really gets back to about the 61.8 fib before falling more. All huge red flags for sellers, and to get out neat and tidy around that retest area is the best thing to do.

Overall PL
I am glad we've had this example of a strategy failure early (my forecast is we see USDJPY move in a way that would make this buy a horrible trade to have held much longer). It highlights the difference between precise and perfect. I can demonstrate precision at times, but I know the strategy can not be perfect. They are not infallible. The exiting of a position at a loss well in this set up is extremely important.
Although this is a great trade, do not be over confident with it. Use it to profit when it's paying, and do not hang onto to losing trades when the London into NY sessions do not show the strong move we're trading. We can not trade what is not there.
Current Gain = 0.8%
Max risk exposure possible - 0.4%
Max real equity drawdown - 0.3%
submitted by whatthefx to u/whatthefx [link] [comments]

Forex Sentiment Data Overview, it's Application in Algo trading, and Free Sample Data

From Commitment of Traders (COT) to the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI), to the Put/Call ratio and more, sentiment data has long been highly sought after by both professional and retail traders in the mission to get an edge in the market. Equity and futures traders can access this market data relatively easily due to the centralization of the market they are trading.

But what about Forex traders? There is no single centralized exchange for the Foreign Exchange market therefore sentiment data is difficult to obtain and can be extremely pricey for Forex traders. Furthermore, if a trader had access to such data, the sample set may be limited and not closely reflect the actual market.

In order for Forex sentiment data to be valuable, the data must be derived from a large, far reaching sample of Forex traders. FXCM boasts important Forex trading volumes and a significant trader sample and the broker’s large sample size is one of the most representative samples of the entire retail Forex market. Therefore, the data can be used to help predict movement of the rate of an instrument in the overall market.

This sentiment data shows the retail trader positioning and is derived from the buyer-to-seller ratio among retail FXCM traders. At a glance, you can see historical and current trader positioning in the market. A positive ratio indicates there are more traders that are long for every trader that is short. A negative ratio is indicative of a higher number of traders that are short for every long trader. For example, a ratio of 2.5 would mean that there are 2.5 traders that are long for every short trader and -2.5 would mean just the opposite.

When it comes to algo trading, sentiment can be used as a contrarian indicator to help predict potential moves and locate trading opportunities. When there is an extreme ratio or net volume reading, the majority of traders are either long or short a specific instrument. It is expected that the traders who are currently in these positions will eventually close out therefore bring the ratio back to neutral. Consequently, there tends to be a sharp price movement or a reversal.

When extremes like this are present in the market, a mean reversion automated strategy can be implemented to take advantage of the moves in the market that are expected to ensue. If sentiment is skewed very high or very low, price is moving away from the mean. However, over time it is expected to regress back to the mean resulting in a more neutral reading. Neutral would be considered a number close to 1.0 or -1.0. It is recommended that a confirmation indicator or two be coded into the mean reversion strategy as well.

Free one-month sample of the historical Sentiment Data can be accessed by pasting this link in your browser{instrument}.csv.gz and changing the {instrument}: to the pair or CFD you would like to download data for. For example, for USD/JPY data download you would use this link:
When the file downloads, it will be a GNU zip compressed file so you will need to use a decompression utility to open it. To open the file with 7zip, open the downloads folder, click on your file, and click ‘copy path’. Then open 7Zip and paste your clipboard into the address bar and click enter. Then click the ‘extract’ button. This will open a window where you can designate a destination to copy your new csv file. Click OK, and navigate back to your file explorer to see your csv file.
You can find more details about the sentiment data by checking out FXCM’s Github page:
submitted by JasonRogers to AlgoTradingFXCM [link] [comments]

Overview of Current Market Valuations and Toyota Motors (TM)

Hello All,
Every now and then I do stock screens to see if there are any companies that would be a good value investment. Thanks to the bull market, the opportunities have been few and far between over the last year or two. However one company has consistently popped up in my screens. I initially ignored it as the company is in a sector I personally don't like to invest in due to the large capital requirements. The company is Toyota Motors (TM).
Simply put, the valuation seems too good to be true.
First off, let me show you what I am talking about. Here are the heat maps from FinViz:
Now as you can see, the general trend of the market is giving you discounts to Financials, Utilities, and Basic Materials, more specifically oil and gold.
Of those sectors, I really only like Financials as big oil has been in a downward trend over the past three years. Both Exxon and Chevron have produced less oil than the previous years and are both spending at near record high CapEx levels with no turnaround yet. I have continuously looked at both of them as I don't have any oil in my current portfolio, but haven't got myself to buy either of them.
Financials will continue to be attractive at these levels as investors still don't trust their book values since the financial crisis even though asset quality has continued to improve on a broad base. Over the next 5 years, interest rates will rise which will increase their spread which in turn increases their profitability.
For the most part, it appears healthcare, consumer goods, and services are currently overvalued.
Now, let's look at Toyota. Below is a quick multiples valuation against TM's peers. These are from Yahoo! Finance as GM isn't on FinViz for some reason.
Forward P/E
As you can see, the whole sector looks cheap on a multiples basis, but of that bunch Toyota seems to win out on an overall valuation based on multiples.
Per my own investing rules, as I am a long term shareholder, I won't touch a company that has recently been bankrupt, therefore I rule out GM for any potential investments.
Now Toyota is too big of a company to do a full report on in a couple of days. However, of what little research I have done, this is what I have found.
First of all, on a macro perspective, the yen has weakened against both the US Dollar and the Chinese Yuan. Over the past two years, the Dollar and Yuan have both gained over 30% to the yen and over 10% this past year. This is a great thing for a Japanese multinational as North America and Asia is TM's second and third largest markets which combined are 46% of 2013's sales.
Because of this, profitability should be higher within Toyota which is also a reason to buy them over GM or Ford as the american automakers will lose money with a strong dollar overseas.
Over the past three years, TM has a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.12%. Last year, North America saw 32.8% sales growth and Asia saw 30.22% sales growth. This compounded with the yen weakening is a one-two punch.
Due to the strong demand in both North America and Asia, Toyota has had a surge in Consolidated Net Income for Fiscal Year 2014 of 135% in which ForEx is responsible for 123% of that growth alone. In this latest quarter, Net Revenues are up 23.9% with Net Income up 118%.
Toyota's Shareholder Presentation
Margins have increased across the board with their Gross Profit increasing from last year:
TM's Gross Profit Margin
As for a quick look at the balance sheet, Toyota has been de-leveraging over the past 5 years with Total Debt / Equity of 1.25 in 2009 to 1.16 in 2013. Book Value per Share has stayed relatively flat but grew 15.14% from 2012 to 2013. Compare that to a one year increase in share price of only 12.25% I believe we have a winner.
This is only what I have found off of a couple hours looking at this tonight and have only scratched the surface as to the information on this company.
However after just a small amount of research I firmly believe this is a truly undervalued company and should be bought right away.
References: Quick Stats pulled from TM's Annual Report
EDIT Thank you all for the replies. I should state that this is just beginning due diligence and there are several assumptions with this thesis, mainly that the Yen will stay depressed at least over the next year. This type of condition is a short term catalyst only and not a long term theme. As some have mentioned already, FX has been almost entirely behind TM's profit and there are real geopolitical risks between Japan and China.
Next week I will put together another post looking more into the actual underlying company's long term performance and management's strategic plan going forward. That way we can get a glimpse of what the company might look like in the future.
Again thank you all for the kind words and the intelligent discussion around this topic.
submitted by magesform to investing [link] [comments]

Wykoff/VSA theorists, what's your take on the current short term market manipulation with the USDJPY?

Chart for reference:
This week has been particularly good for market maker manipulation, with two ultimately inconsequential, but high profile speeches from Yellen and Draghi. For new players who are not familiar with this tactic, market makers will often use these speeches to drive price in a certain direction at least expense to themselves, and low volume mark-ups are typically indicative that the next "trend" play is in the other direction.
This week, they used the Yellen speech to drive the USDJPY up on very little volume, thanks to the highly fortunate coincidence of thin liquidity and the speech itself. Could it be they're actually priming for a "pump and dump" (where market makers inflate the price so they can sell at a profit, and then in forex, short at much better level) and continue the down trend of the USDJPY?
The obvious target for a "pump and dump" is the very well respected down trendline that has been used to contain any up move in the USDJPY. You can see how past contacts with the downtrend line result in forceful down moves with strong engulfs.
So what happened with the downtrend line contact just recently? Well, for those not watching, the USDJPY was pushed up over the down trendline on the back Draghi's speech. Whilst USDJPY movements on ECB policy aren't necessarily abnormal, it's still noteworthy to see a significant trendline and level (the daily pivot point) attacked on a Draghi speech in the current risk climate.
What's even more noteworthy is that they chose not to maintain price above that level, instead letting it sink back down, and thus creating the impression the trendline is holding.
This leads to two possible interpretations, but I'm undecided as to which is true.
1) There will be false break of the trendline and then an aggressive mark-down, likely timed to Trump's speech. Market makers want a deeper retrace of the USDJPY, and recent manipulation was oriented at generating a consensus amongst major participants.
2) The low volume associated with the Yellen speech mark-up is simply coincidental, and it represents pre-positioning to commence marking the USDJPY up, breaking the trendline and resuming the uptrend.
Either way, I'm anticipating the mark-up/mark-down will occur on the back of the inauguration speech.
What's your Wykoff/VSA interpretation?
submitted by alotmorealots to Forex [link] [comments]

Daily thread #339

We could easily say, walk-in retailers are killing it so far in December. As the tech sell-off goes global, the sector proves strong despite all odds. Especially Costco (COST), who has added 20% to its share price since the Amazon-Whole Food merger. Costco is reporting in a week its quarterly revenue and it seems they have a great time. How long will it last? As long as people love to go out shopping the old ways.
The R&D tax credit confusion is an unintended consequence of the 11th-hour re-addition of the corporate alternative minimum tax, a parallel system in which companies pay a low 20% rate but get fewer tax breaks. Finally we are getting closer to an accomplished Trump task and will see remarkable things in the not so far future. A great many of headline making acquisitions with lowered tax will give everyone a margin we have been waiting for.
Microsoft (MSFT) extends its deal with the National Football League (NFL) that makes the Surface the NFL’s official tablet. The company signed a five-year deal with the NFL in 2013. The extension adds an additional year, which pushes the deal expiration to the end of the 2018-19 football season. The company is loved by everyone and as we follow its future aims, you can read here what is to come.
The Bank of America (BAC) looks to be one of the tax bill winners, nice aim to go higher these days.
Microsoft (MSFT), yet again, as equity pours in from abroad, the company could make great highs after the tech sell-off.
Amgen Inc. (AMGN), as many others have loads of money stashed away overseas, with tax cuts it might will bring it home and make some acquisitions. Good for the stock.
BMW (BMW.D) Aims for a 50% Increase in Electric Vehicle Sales Next Year. BMW wants to defend its position in the electric-car shift as competitors like Volkswagen AG ready their own battery lineups.
Aixtron SE (AIXA.D) is a leading provider of deposition equipment to the semiconductor industry headquartered in Aachen, Germany. Aixtron has good reviews and its projected growth for the current year is 6.9%. Its earnings estimate for the current year has improved by 6.9% over the last 30 days.
As the US tax bill is making headways, the forex market reacted positively and this momentum should continue for the next trading sessions.
The EURUSD initially gapped lower, moving back and forth as a reaction to the American tax bill is progressing. The pair could pull back to 1.17 if given enough time, finding buyers in the area, while in a longer term we are looking at the 1.21 level to reach.
The GBPUSD also gapped under and moved rapidly during the day, forming a shooting star. There is a lot of buying pressure on the 1.3333 levet which eventually will send the pair to 1.21.
The USDJPY opened with a gap higher, but pulled back and also formed a shooting star. The market us looking for buying opportunities at the 112 are. Ultimately the pair will break above 113 and aim to 114.5. If it happens, and we see it going higher, there is a significant resistance at the 115 zone. Under 112 we have plenty of support on 111 which will keep it going.
Check our blog for more information:
submitted by GTCnews to STOCKMARKETNEWS [link] [comments]

USD/JPY Live Forecast With The Help of Price Action  Trading Trick  Forex Strategy LEARN TO READ PRICE IN FOREX - USDJPY Q&A - YouTube LEARN TO READ PRICE IN FOREX PART 2 - USDJPY DROPPED - YouTube Forex Market Weekly Forecast  Best Forex Currency To ... CURRENT USD/JPY ANALYSIS FOR NEW MARKET WEEK  TRADING ... Basics of The Forex Market & Currency Pairs - YouTube

USD JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen) Also known as trading the “gopher” the USDJPY pair is one of the most traded pairs in the world. The value of these currencies when compared to each other is affected by the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Traders that are bearish USD/JPY will surely pay close attention to support (blue line) with much interest as a break of this level opens up to a much larger move down to the 101.50 – 100.50 ... Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across. The Japanese Preliminary GDP q/q data (Forecast: TBA, Previous: -7.9% revised from -7.8%) will be released next Monday at 0750 (SGT). Currently, USD/JPY is testing to break below the key level of 105. Its next support zone is at 104.200 and the next resistance zone is at 106.300. Look for buying opportunities of USD/JPY if it... USD/JPY. On a 120-minute timeframe, USD/JPY moved from a high of 105.33 to today’s lows near 103.66 since election night. The pair is just below a downward sloping trendline from October 21 st and the 127.2 Fibonacci extension from the low on October 29 th to the highs on November 4 th. The RSI is diverging with price! Watch for a bounce back ... USD/JPY represents the amount of Japanese yen that can be purchased with one US dollar. At the time of the Breton Woods System the yen was fixed to the US dollar at 360JPY per 1USD, but the exchanged only lasted until the US abandoned the gold standard in 1971. Since then the yen has appreciated significantly against the US dollar. The yen is the third most traded currency in world, behind the ... The USD/JPY prices consolidated within a sideways trading range, with a yearly high to low change of 9%, as traders seemed confused as to whether to buy USD or JPY, amid safe haven concerns, especially due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Let’s take a look at the USD/JPY price forecast for Q4 of 2020 and upcoming years. USD/JPY Current price: 105. 30. Financial boards have stabilized after Monday’s wild ride but optimism remains. US Treasury yields retreated from multi-month highs, hold on to weekly gains.

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USD/JPY Live Forecast With The Help of Price Action Trading Trick Forex Strategy

Free signals group- Subscribe my Channel to learn Price Action Trading Tricks For Currency INDEX Chart Visit- https://forexvis... Forex Market Weekly Forecast Best Forex Currency To Trade EURUSD ? GBPUSD ? USDJPY ? Forex Market Weekly Forecast Gift For All Subscribers ! Forex Weekly... This is the first in a series of videos covering the basics of the Forex market. We look at a simple example of exchanging currencies and the effect of fluct... Hey My name is Elcie and I am a Day trader !! The purpose of this channel is to help newcomers to the trading market with free information and to share ideas... This is the second part of the first video "Learn To Read Price In Forex. The basis of this video is to show you, based on how we discussed what was happenin... During this live we will be talking about how to understand what price is doing. This video will look into how the market makers build their positions before...